Dart-Throwing Chimp

I don’t usually post lists of links, but the flurry of great material on forecasting that hit my screen over the past few days is inspiring me to make an exception. Here in no particular order are several recent pieces that deserve wide reading:

  • The Weatherman Is Not a Moron.” Excerpted from a forthcoming book by the New York Times’ Nate Silver, this piece deftly uses meteorology to illustrate the difficulties of forecasting in complex systems and some of the ways working forecasters deal with them. For a fantastic intellectual history on the development of the ensemble forecasting approach Silver discusses, see this July 2005 journal article by John Lewis in the American Meteorological Society’s Monthly Weather Review.
  • Trending Upward.” Michael Horowitz and Phil Tetlock write for Foreign Policy about how the U.S. “intelligence community” can improve its long-term forecasting. The authors focus on the…

View original post 327 more words

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s