Dart-Throwing Chimp

I don’t usually post lists of links, but the flurry of great material on forecasting that hit my screen over the past few days is inspiring me to make an exception. Here in no particular order are several recent pieces that deserve wide reading:

  • The Weatherman Is Not a Moron.” Excerpted from a forthcoming book by the New York Times’ Nate Silver, this piece deftly uses meteorology to illustrate the difficulties of forecasting in complex systems and some of the ways working forecasters deal with them. For a fantastic intellectual history on the development of the ensemble forecasting approach Silver discusses, see this July 2005 journal article by John Lewis in the American Meteorological Society’s Monthly Weather Review.
  • Trending Upward.” Michael Horowitz and Phil Tetlock write for Foreign Policy about how the U.S. “intelligence community” can improve its long-term forecasting. The authors focus on the…

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